NFL Draft Guide Part 1: AFC

 

            The NFL Draft sits just under two weeks away. One of the anticipated weekends on the sporting calendar brings with it much excitement, as teams and fans look ahead to what they hope are brighter days. I have divided this post in two parts. Today we will take a look at the draft needs of the teams in the AFC. Tomorrow, we will take a look at those sane needs amongst NFC clubs. Here is a look at what I think each AFC team needs to do in this draft in order to take the next step.

 

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers- In spite of the departure of one Antonio Brown and the aging and injuries of Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers have still managed to keep a respectable passing game in place. While their defense may not be quite to the standard of what they are accustomed to at Heinz Field, they actually have a very solid unit that ranked third in total yards allowed per game in 2020. Where did they struggle? The running game. The Steelers ranked dead last in a rushing yards per game. Couple that with the departure of James Conner to Arizona and you have a team that needs to re-tool in that area. I would look for Pittsburgh to perhaps make some additions to their offensive line and look for a running back. One of their top linebackers in Bud Dupree also moved in free agency, so they could potentially look to draft a linebacker as well.

Baltimore Ravens- Baltimore’s offense touched both ends of the spectrum last year. They ranked first in rushing yards, but last in passing yards. Finding balance has to be John Harbaugh’s number one priority this off-season as the Ravens are a team that seems to be on the cusp of championship caliber. Further incentivizing a good draft for the Ravens is the fact that their defense ranked in the top 10 in all three yardage categories last year. This all points to the Ravens focusing on offense in this draft. I think Baltimore should pursue more pass protection help and additional receiving threats for Lamar Jackson. They could also further that elite running game by adding another back after the recent departure of veteran Mark Ingram.

Cleveland Browns- 2020 was an incredibly strange year. Want proof of that? The Cleveland Browns actually won a playoff game. 2020 seemed like a year straight out of Science Fiction movie. The idea that Browns could competitive again, seemed like pure fiction not long ago. But Kevin Stefanski ushered in a turnaround that helped turn the factory of sadness into an oasis of optimism. Cleveland will want to go further now, and they can do so with a good draft performance- something that is not normally their forte. I think the Browns should look at adding a receiver to compliment Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. Their secondary could also use some work after they finished 21^st in defending the pass last year.

Cincinnati Bengals- Cincinnati has young weapons and they showed that off with their last-season Monday win against the Steelers last year. Of course, their future course is largely dependent on the recovery and continued upward trajectory of last year’s number one overall pick, Joe Burrow. Burrow showed plenty of the potential that made Cincinnati pick him at that spot before his season-ending ACL injury. But Zac Taylor needs to find ways to help his young quarterback now. Cincinnati struggled along both lines, so protecting Burrow needs to be a high priority. On the defensive line, they need to replace Pro Bowler Geno Atkins who is no longer with the Bengals. They should also look to add another potential pass rusher to line-up opposite of Sam Hubbard. Burrow is expected to be ready in time for next season, however, with such a good quarterback class this year, it may not hurt the Bengals to draft a quarterback in the later rounds that could serve as a viable backup to Joe Burrow.

 

AFC East

Buffalo Bills- The Bills ended their long playoff drought. Then they followed it up with another playoff win the following week. Buffalo has found their franchise quarterback in Josh Allen and they were actually one of the most difficult teams to find glaring weaknesses in their roster. I could see them adding help along the interior defensive line and they could add another pass rusher opposite of Matt Milano. I also think that a tight end selection could be a good one for Buffalo. The Bills are another team who could be made serious Super Bowl contenders with a good draft performance.

New England Patriots- Patriots fans area about to experience something they have not seen in a very long time: drafting in the first half of the first round. The Patriots’ incredible playoff run was final snapped last year – due in part to losing one Thomas Brady – and now New England is actually looking at an uncertain future – for once. The Patriots need to re-tool their offense. Their offensive line needs an upgrade. But perhaps the wide receiver position is now at the front of Bill Belichick’s mind. The Patriots struggles to much in the passing game. Now that problem has been exacerbated by Julian Edelman’s release with a failed physical designation and his subsequent retirement. I would expect the Patriots to pursue a wide receiver early, but also take a good look at the offensive line. I also think that Belichick may evaluate if either Cam Newton or Jarrett Stidham are the long-term answers at quarterback. If not, do not be surprised if he takes a quarterback in the later rounds of this draft. This is one of the most important drafts in Foxborough in recent memory.

New York Jets- Where do you start with this? Two late wins last season mean that the Jets will not pick number one overall. But they have the needs of a team that would be at that spot. The Jets recently gave up on another young quarterback by trading Sam Darnold to Carolina. So where does Gang Green go from here? To start, a quarterback is an obvious must and they are still in a good position to pursue either Justin Fields, Zach Wilson or maybe Mac Jones. On top of that, the Jets need to make improvements on the offensive line. They also need to address the situation in their secondary which also struggled a season ago. The Jets do have Quinnen Williams to build around defensively. But, after the departure of Adam Gase, it feels like the Jets are hitting the re-set button on their franchise – again.

Miami Dolphins- Brian Flores has seemingly rescued the Dolphins from what, at the beginning of the 2019 season, seemed to be an abyss. They had a huge chance at the playoffs slip-away from them in a December collapse last year. But this team is heading in the right direction. There were plenty of ups and downs from rookie Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. There is plenty of hope with Tua, but after he had to battle some injuries last year, the Dolphins need to prioritize protecting him. The greatest journeyman in league history, Ryan Fitzpatrick, is now in Washington, so Tagovailoa is the guy, and they need to keep him healthy. Miami started working on their offensive line a year ago, but they must put in even more work to solidify the line. They also could use some help at the quarterback spot opposite of Xavien Howard. I also believe that that Dolphins would benefit from adding another wider receiver. This is a critical draft for Miami with most signs pointing upward for the franchise.

 

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts- Indianapolis enjoyed a resurgent 2020 under Frank Reich and while Philip Rivers made the decision to retire, they believe they have found their long-term quarterback: Carson Wentz. Their main weakness comes from having been 20^th against the pass last year on defense. I think that would indicate that Reich and General Manager Chris Ballard will look at bolstering their secondary in the draft. I think they could benefit from looking at both corners and safeties. The Colts have made a big move acquiring Wentz, I would expect them to be aggressive in this draft, as they have clearly demonstrated their belief that they can be serious contenders this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars- Jacksonville holds the pole position in this draft and they seem to have made their first selection clear. Urban Meyer has now un-retired for a second time and is in the NFL. He has made it clear that Trevor Lawrence is their guy. Or is he? Meyer has played this game more than a few times as a recruiter, so maybe this could be some sort of diversionary tactic. It is not likely, but for sure a possibility to keep in mind. The Jaguars also need to look at and pursuing an offensive line that could protect the quarterback, Lawrence of whomever else that may be. Tight end also could be a good place to look in this draft as they have a good, young receiving corps and they just parted ways with Fort Wayne native Tyler Eifert at tight end. Look for them to potentially look for a defensive end that could fill the place once held by Yannick Ngakoue. Urban Meyer’s first draft is a crucial one to chart the path forward for this normally downtrodden franchise.

Tennessee Titans- The Titans have Derrick Henry and that solves a lot of problems. But now, General Manager Jon Robinson and Head Coach Mike Vrabel have to do the rest. Last year’s first rounder for Tennessee, Isaiah Wilson, did not work out well for several different reasons and, per mutual-decision, Wilson was traded to Miami where further off-the-field problems brought about his release. Not Tennessee needs to re-start the work of building a solid offensive line around Taylor Lewan. Former number first round pick Corey Davis has also departed, so drafting another receiver to pair with A.J. Brown would seem to be a good direction for the Titans to go. The Titans also declined to bring back Jadeveon Clowney, creating a need at an edge rusher spot. If the Titans can fill these needs, they could be amongst the front-runners in the AFC.

Houston Texans- Houston appeared set to reboot the franchise after firing Bill O’Brien and getting rid of a J.J. Watt. All of this after the, still, inexplicable trade of DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona. Further complicating this offseason with the Texans is the fact that their star quarterback wants a trade away from NRG Stadium. But now the very serious legal situation that Deshaun Watson is in, makes that almost impossible. New General Manager Nick Caserio and new Head Coach David Culley, have to navigate a roster re-set without even knowing what the immediate future for the Texans consists of. Defensively, the Texans need to a pass rusher capable of replacing Watt and they also need help along the defensive line. Offensively, the Texans need work up front, and they could look at taking a running back that could compete with David Johnson for the starting job. As crazy as it may sound, I think the Texans should consider a late-round quarterback option, given the uncertainty of Deshaun Watson’s situation.

 

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs- The Chiefs fell one game short of back-to-back Super Bowl Championships. In doing so, however, the exposed what their main emphasis should be in the upcoming draft: their offensive line. Patrick Mahomes had to run for his life all game. While some may see that as just one game, I see it as something more. Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, my have figured out the counter to Mahomes’ dynamic arm. Mahomes was uncomfortable all game, although he still almost made the plays. I think that should be a primary position of focus and the Chiefs could also look at inside linebacker for another idea.

Las Vegas Raiders- The “Autumn Winds” must now feel like a blast of wintery, arctic air for the passionate Raiders fan base. They may have moved to Las Vegas, but their struggles followed them. The Raiders defense placed in the bottom third in the three major statistical categories last year. So, while they could use some improvement along the offensive line, they need to focus on their defense in my opinion. I think that the linebacker and edge rusher spots will be ones to look at. While they are at, the Raiders also may want to remind Jon Gruden that they no longer play in Oakland.

Los Angeles Chargers- The Chargers made the decision to move on from Anthony Lynn as their head coach. But Rookie of the Year Quarterback Justin Herbert should give the franchise plenty of hope for the future. Herbert looked comfortable after taking over for the unlucky Tyrod Taylor. The Chargers have weapons at receiver on at some key spots of defense. Now it is about complimenting them and helping out their young quarterback. I think the primary focus for General Manager Tom Telesco should be on the defensive line.

Denver Broncos-We round out our look at the AFC, with the Denver Broncos. Head Coach Vic Fangio may find himself on the hot seat in Mile High this year, making this draft important for him and legendary Broncos quarterback turned executive John Elway. I have said before that I am not entirely sold yet on Drew Lock at quarterback. Given the depth at the position in this year’s draft class, now could be a time for Denver to make a move. Also look for Denver to upgrade the interior of their defensive linen, which should help provide support for edge rushers Von Miller and Bradley Chubb.